The 7 Day Outlook table summarises the demand, supply and reserve at the time of forecast daily peak demand for each NEM region over the next seven days.

This information is extracted from the latest STPASA public report - http://www.nemweb.com.au/REPORTS/CURRENT/Short_Term_PASA_Reports/

 

 

7 Day Supply and Demand Outlook Forecast Supply and Demand at Peak for NEM Regions (figures in MW)
Region	Date	08-Oct-08	09-Oct-08	10-Oct-08	11-Oct-08	12-Oct-08	13-Oct-08	14-Oct-08
NSW	Demand	10025	10025	9980	9105	9093	8964	10025
	Supply	11655	12178	12148	11948	11918	12107	12107
	Reserve	3406	4086	4284	4963	5356	5257	4199
	Time	17:30	17:30	17:30	10:00	18:30	18:00	17:30
QLD	Demand	6626	6662	6528	6066	6177	6744	6802
	Supply	9126	8969	9158	9560	9977	9332	9309
	Reserve	1731	1695	1871	2423	2382	1915	1875
	Time	19:00	19:00	10:00	19:00	19:00	14:30	13:00
SA	Demand	1731	1767	1652	1526	1513	1629	1709
	Supply	2462	2529	2519	2202	2605	2605	2528
	Reserve	841	793	1116	1223	1216	1126	1021
	Time	09:00	20:00	19:30	00:30	16:30	20:00	19:30
TAS	Demand	1409	1433	1392	1295	1271	1379	1392
	Supply	1987	2006	2006	2006	2126	2016	2126
	Reserve	1056	1051	1092	1189	1333	1115	1212
	Time	07:30	07:30	07:00	19:30	20:00	07:30	07:30
VIC	Demand	7041	7037	6522	6027	5569	6843	7047
	Supply	8919	8472	8403	8596	8596	8796	8576
	Reserve	2971	2390	2928	3851	4298	3263	2510
	Time	08:00	08:00	10:30	19:00	20:00	19:30	08:00

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Explanation of terms

The following explains the source of the items on the above table.  Note that all these items are forecast results from the STPASA Outage LRC run, and are relevant to the peak demand period of each day.

Demand:
The most likely peak demand for the region based on weather adjusted forecasts by NEMMCO with a 50% probability of exceedance, to be met by scheduled generation (either locally or via interconnector imports).

Supply:
Total generating capacity that is available within the selected region, based on the Maximum Availability of all scheduled generation within that region (as advised by the relevant Generators), subjected to any network constraints and/or daily energy limitations on that generation. This figure includes net export to other regions and excludes net import from other regions via interconnectors.

Reserve:

• Reserve: The supply available to a region in excess of the scheduled demand including supply from other regions through interconnectors.

Time:
The time of the forecast daily peak demand in Eastern Standard Time.

 

Table items in terms of MMS Data Model:

 

Table Item	In terms of MMS Data Model…
Supply	=   STPASA.REGIONSOLUTION.ConstrainedCapacity +      STPASA.REGIONSOLUTION.Unconstrained Capacity
Demand	=   STPASA.REGIONSOLUTION.Demand50
Reserve	=   Supply + Net Import – Demand =   STPASA.REGIONSOLUTION.SurplusCapacity =   STPASA.REGIONSOLUTION.ConstrainedCapacity +      STPASA.REGIONSOLUTION.Unconstrained Capacity -          STPASA.REGIONSOLUTION. LORNetInterchangeUnderScarcity –      STPASA.REGIONSOLUTION. Demand50
Time	=   STPASA.REGIONSOLUTION. Interval_DateTime